In 2009, the development of the industry faced the pressure of slowing domestic and foreign demand. Next year, there will be three major benefits to promote the development of the industry, including the macroeconomic policy of "guaranteeing growth", the decline in factor prices, and increased policy support.
1. "Ensure growth" macro policy. From the perspective of the current macro policy, with the deterioration of the external environment, the domestic economic growth is obviously slowing down. This time the central bank lowered the two rates and the credit policy has turned positive, reflecting that the national macro policy is changing from "anti-inflation" to "guarantee". Growth” transformation. We believe that the investment brought about by credit relaxation will boost the demand for machinery. In addition, in the context of the slowdown in real estate investment, the government may increase investment to stimulate economic growth. For example, increasing investment in high-speed railways, highways, water conservancy, electricity, and urban infrastructure will drive new demand for construction machinery, while a substantial increase in the purchase of railway equipment will drive demand for railway equipment.
2. Falling factor prices reduce cost pressures. The prices of raw materials such as steel and energy have fallen sharply since August 2008. The People’s Bank of China has also lowered lending rates several times. The fall in the prices of steel, energy, and capital factors will alleviate the pressure on the cost of the machinery industry, especially the drop in steel prices. Companies with a relatively high proportion are major positives, including China Shipbuilding and Guangzhou Shipyard International in the shipbuilding industry, Liugong, XGMA, Anhui Heli and Shantui in the construction machinery industry, and Taiyuan Heavy Industry and Zhenhua Port in the heavy machinery industry. Machine waiting.
3. Policy support has been increased. Since August 2008, the government has increased its support for the machinery industry. In addition to the previous announcement, “Import tariffs and import value-added tax paid by domestic companies for the development and manufacture of ultra-high voltage transmission and transformation equipment, large petrochemical equipment, large coal chemical equipment, and import tax In addition to policies such as the suspension of import tax exemptions for some imported equipment, which are beneficial to the machinery industry, the recent "change of value-added tax from production to consumption" will also constitute a major benefit for the machinery industry. These policies will stimulate demand for machinery on the one hand, and on the other. On the other hand, it can enhance the competitiveness of domestic equipment and reduce its production cost, which is conducive to the long-term development of the industry.