Before 2020, global wind turbine demand will grow at a compound growth rate of 20% According to historical data, the compound annual growth rate of global wind power installed capacity from 1996 to 2007 reached 25%; the increasingly serious environmental problems, the maintenance of high oil prices and the increasing maturity of wind power technology all support the strong demand for wind power installed capacity in the future; the global abundant wind power Resources make wind power growth without resource bottlenecks.
In 2008, China's wind turbines will be in short supply
my country is in the early stage of wind power development. In the next three years, domestic demand for wind turbines will continue to grow rapidly, with a compound growth rate of 40%, and the growth rate in 2008 will reach 50%; the ineffective release of domestic production capacity before 2009 will cause 2008 Domestic wind turbines are in short supply.
Goldwind, Dongqi and Huarui are the most competitive local wind turbine manufacturers in the future
Goldwind Technology, Dongqi and Huarui are the most competitive local wind turbine manufacturing companies in the future. We have six aspects: technology development maturity, financial strength, completeness of supporting systems, talent reserve, historical performance and brand image, management and incentives. Judge local manufacturers and believe that the above three companies are the most competitive local wind turbine manufacturers in the future.
Give the wind turbine manufacturing industry a "recommended" investment rating
Huge market demand, good manufacturing foundation, China's wind turbine manufacturing industry has a bright future, and we give the industry a "recommended" investment rating.
In 2008, the rapid development of the industry brought huge opportunities to companies in the industry, but we believe that companies in the industry that have core technologies or have good development prospects should be given a certain growth premium, and some companies that do not have core competitiveness should not enjoy other markets. The growth premium enjoyed by Shangfeng turbine manufacturers.
Highly recommend Dongfang Electric
As one of the most competitive local companies in the industry, the current stock price does not reflect the company's wind power business value: the company's traditional business is valued at 71 billion yuan, the wind power business is valued at 9 billion yuan, and the company's overall market value is 80 billion yuan. , The value per share is 98 yuan.
Driving factors, key assumptions and main forecasts:
The increasing global attention to environmental issues, the maintenance of high international oil prices and the reduction of wind power costs due to the maturity of wind power technology are the main driving factors for the rapid growth of wind power installed capacity.
With the maturity of wind power technology, the cost of wind power is reduced by 20% every 5 years.
It is estimated that the global installed capacity of wind power will grow at a compound annual growth rate of 20% before 2020.
The compound growth rate of demand for wind turbines in China in the next three years will reach 40%; in 2008, demand for wind turbines in China will increase by 50%, and the ineffective release of production capacity will make supply tight.
What makes us different from the market view:
The market believes that all wind turbine manufacturers should be given a premium for growth.
We believe that companies in the industry that have core technologies or have good development prospects should be given a certain growth premium, but some companies that do not have core competitiveness should not enjoy the growth premiums enjoyed by wind turbine manufacturers in other markets.
Industry valuation and investment advice:
The average price-earnings ratio of major wind turbine manufacturers in the European market in 2008 is estimated to be 47 times, which represents a premium of 228% relative to the average market valuation, indicating that the market is optimistic about the growth prospects of the industry. The 2008 forecasted price-earnings ratio of listed companies of Chinese wind turbines is 57.39 times, and the relative premium rate is 81.56%, which is lower than the European market.
China's wind turbine manufacturing industry is growing rapidly. With China's huge market and good manufacturing foundation, local and globally competitive wind turbine manufacturers will surely emerge in the future. We give the industry a "recommended" investment rating.
Focus on recommending Dongfang Electric whose share price does not reflect the company's wind power business.
A catalyst for industry performance:
Global environmental problems have worsened and oil prices have risen further, which will stimulate demand for wind power.
Breakthroughs in wind power technology will reduce the cost of wind power and enhance the competitiveness of wind power relative to traditional energy sources.
The above factors will enhance the market’s confidence in the development prospects of the industry, push up the stock prices of corresponding companies, and improve the overall performance of the industry.
Main risk factors:
The preferential policies that support the development of wind power cannot be fulfilled, and the supply of key components cannot be effectively guaranteed, which will restrict the development of the industry.
1. Background analysis of the extraordinary development of global wind power
In the past ten years, global wind power has achieved extraordinary development. Analyzing the internal reasons, we believe that this depends on one condition and three driving factors supporting the development of wind power: one condition is the existence of abundant wind resources in the world, and the three driving factors are the global Increasing attention to environmental issues, high oil prices and increasingly mature wind power technology.
(1) The increasingly serious environmental problems are pushing governments around the world to support the development of clean new energy
At present, the international community is increasingly aware of the seriousness of environmental pollution and global warming, and has taken measures to try to curb the deterioration of environmental problems. One of the measures is to support the development of clean new energy. Wind power is a clean new energy that can be developed commercially on a large scale. Judging from international experience, the government's incentive policies play an important role in the development of the wind power industry. These policies and measures include various forms of subsidies, price concessions, tax relief, discounts or low-interest loans, etc. High-intensity incentive mechanism is one of the key measures to overcome development obstacles and promote industrial development.
At present, China’s policies and measures to encourage the development of domestic wind power mainly include: localization rate of 70%, full grid connection of wind power, electricity price sharing, and fiscal and tax support. These measures have played a role in stimulating domestic wind power investment and supporting local wind turbine manufacturing. Important role. Regarding the wind power policy, we have a more detailed introduction in the attachment.
(2) High oil prices force countries to seek renewable alternative energy
Since 2003, international oil prices have continued to rise, reaching the US$100 mark several times by the end of 2007. The continuous increase in international oil prices has driven the prices of natural gas, coal and other fossil energy to rise simultaneously.
The price of fossil energy remains high to make alternative new energy sources such as wind power, nuclear power and solar power economically viable. These factors have led to a global investment boom in new energy sources including wind power.
(3) Wind power generation technology is becoming more mature
The characteristics of disposable energy sources such as fossils, such as increased environmental costs and non-renewability, determine that the cost will continue to rise; and as the technology matures and scale effects are exerted, the cost of new energy generation such as wind power and nuclear power will be further reduced.
Among many new energy sources, wind power is one of the most promising new energy sources for commercial development. In recent years, with the increasing maturity of wind power technology, the installed capacity of wind power continues to increase, the grid connection performance continues to improve, and the power generation efficiency continues to increase. Wind power equipment stands out among the global energy equipment.
Wind turbines account for about 70% of the investment in wind power. With the maturity of wind power technology and the emergence of economies of scale, the price of wind turbines continues to drop, resulting in a continuous reduction in wind power costs. From the 1980s to the early 1990s, the cost of wind power declined rapidly; since the mid-1990s, the cost decline has slowed down. Even so, the cost of wind power has fallen by 20% every 5 years. At this rate, by 2020, even without subsidies, The cost of wind power will be close to conventional energy sources such as coal power.
(4) There is no resource bottleneck in wind power development
About 2% of the sun's radiant energy on the earth is converted into wind energy. The World Meteorological Organization estimates that the total global wind energy resources are about 53 trillion kilowatt-hours, which is about 10 times that of hydropower resources, equivalent to the energy produced by 1.080 billion tons of standard coal, and about 100 times the current energy consumption in the world. It has been developed. Of wind energy accounts for only a small part of the global wind energy resources.
Take China as an example. my country's wind resources rank third in the world, behind Russia and the United States. According to the latest assessment of wind energy resources, the country’s available wind energy resources of 300 million kilowatts, plus the available wind energy resources in coastal waters, total about 1 billion kilowatts; and as of the end of 2007, China’s developed wind power resources accounted for only one of the available wind power resources. 0.5%. The regions with the richest wind resources in China are the "Three Norths" (Northeast, Northwest and North China) and the southeast coast.
2. In 2008, global wind turbine supply and demand tended to balance
(1) Global demand for wind turbines remains strong in 2008
By the end of 2007, it is estimated that the global cumulative wind power installed capacity will reach 92,915MW, an increase of 25.18% year-on-year; the newly installed capacity will reach 18,692MW, an increase of 23% year-on-year.
In 1995, the global demand for wind turbines was about 1290MW. By 2007, the global demand for wind turbines reached 18,692MW, an increase of 14.5 times in 12 years and a compound growth rate of 25%.
In the context of high oil prices, increasingly serious environmental problems, and continued decline in wind power costs, we predict that global wind turbine demand will grow at a compound annual growth rate of 20% before 2020; in 2008, global wind turbine demand will grow by 21%, reaching 22618MW.
The growth of world installed capacity of wind power was mainly concentrated in the United States in the 1980s. Since 1986, the United States has prematurely stopped preferential policies to encourage the development of wind power. In contrast, in Europe, some countries established more comprehensive policies to support renewable energy in the early 1990s, and Europe has achieved faster By the end of 2006, about 48,000MW wind turbines were installed in Europe, accounting for 65.18% of the world.
In recent years, due to the increase in global energy prices and the deterioration of the environment, energy-deficient North America and Asia have become more active in promoting the development of wind power. The demand for wind turbines has become more vigorous, which is reflected in the rapid growth of installed capacity; while in Europe, with the development of wind power resources Increase, and growth stabilizes. In the future, the main force of wind turbine demand growth will be North America and Asia, especially Canada and the United States in North America, and China and India in Asia are all growing rapidly.
It is estimated that in 2008, the demand for wind turbines in Asia, North America and Europe will reach 7,211MW, 5459MW and 10194MW, respectively, up 40%, 30% and 15% year-on-year.
(2) The tight supply of wind turbines in the world in 2008 eased
The bottleneck in the supply of wind turbines in 2007 was gearboxes and bearings. As early as 2006, the global mainstream wind turbine capacity has increased from 1MW to 2~3MW, and the parts that meet the requirements have been reduced accordingly. It takes 2 years for gearbox and spindle manufacturers to update their production lines, and it is difficult to rapidly increase production capacity. Due to the shortage of parts and components, the supply of complete machines in 2007 was in short supply. With the release of key component production capacity in 2008, the tight supply of complete machines will be eased, and supply and demand will tend to balance.
The following chart shows that the supply capacity of blades, generators and towers is greater than the demand measured by the demand in 2006, and the supply capacity of gearboxes and large bearings is less than the demand; in 2010, the supply of all parts and components exceeded the demand.
3. In 2008, China’s wind turbines will still be in short supply
(1) my country's wind turbine demand will continue to grow rapidly in 2008
The promulgation of my country's "Renewable Energy Law" and the formulation and implementation of a series of policies to encourage the development of renewable energy have initiated the large-scale development of wind power resources in my country.
In 2007, according to the relevant forecast of the Wind Energy Association, my country will add 2.4 million kilowatts of wind power installed capacity, and the total installed capacity will reach 5 million kilowatts. The National Development and Reform Commission's plan for "wind power to reach 5 million kilowatts in 2010" was completed three years ahead of schedule. The demand for wind turbines in my country was 43MW in 1999 and 2407MW in 2007, an increase of 56 times in eight years, with a compound growth rate of 65.5%.
my country is in the early stage of wind power development. We estimate that the demand for wind turbines will continue to grow rapidly in the next three years. It is estimated that it will reach 3.61 million kilowatts, 5.05 million kilowatts and 6.57 million kilowatts from 2008 to 2010, an increase of 50% and 40% respectively. And 30%, a three-year compound growth rate of 40%.
According to the National Development and Reform Commission's mid- and long-term plan for renewable energy in my country, by 2010, renewable energy consumption will account for 10% of my country's energy consumption and will reach 15% in 2020. Combined with the status of my country's wind resources, wind power, as the most promising renewable energy source for large-scale commercial development, will surely achieve extraordinary development.
In the longer term, my country’s wind turbine demand is expected to grow at a compound growth rate of 20% from 2011 to 2020. By 2010, my country’s total installed wind power capacity will reach 20.24 million kilowatts, and in 2020 it will reach 225 million kilowatts.
In 2007, my country’s newly installed wind power capacity will reach 2.4 million kilowatts. The current average price of wind turbines is about 4,000 yuan/KW. Based on this calculation, my country’s wind power equipment alone has reached a market size of nearly 10 billion yuan. Parts, my country's wind power equipment industry has reached a considerable scale. According to our forecast of newly installed wind turbines, taking into account the decline in wind turbine prices and the increase in wind turbine capacity, the market size of wind turbines in my country is expected to reach 30 billion yuan in 2010, and 180 billion yuan in 2020. Market size.
(2) In 2008, domestic wind turbines were still in short supply
The new wind power concession bidding policy started in 2006 (70% localization rate requirement, and wind farm developers need to bind domestic manufacturers to participate in bidding), forcing international manufacturers to establish factories in China for localized production.
The requirement for the localization rate of wind turbines restricts the import of wind turbines, and the expansion of local production capacity takes time. Generally, it takes at least 1-2 years from the establishment of a factory to the formation of mass production capacity; and because wind power is an emerging industry in China, The lack of wind power talents and skilled workers will become an obstacle to the substantial increase in wind turbine production capacity in the short term.
Considering the above factors, even if international manufacturers build factories in 2006, the real release of production capacity will need to be in 2009; and if local manufacturers introduce technology, the real formation of large-scale production capacity will not be until 2010. We expect that before 2009, domestic wind turbines will still be in short supply, and the gap will be filled by imported ones.
(3) In 2008, the profitability of domestic wind turbine manufacturing industry will increase steadily
Before 2009, my country's wind turbines were still in short supply, and the price of domestic wind turbines was limited.
At present, the 1.5MW large-capacity unit has become the mainstream model, and the current domestic product price of this type of unit is about 5800 yuan/kw, which is higher than the price of about 3750 yuan/kw for the 750KW model. With the increase in the localization of parts and components of 1.5 MW models and the reduction in costs brought about by the expansion of production scale, the gross profit margin of such models will gradually increase to close to or exceed the gross profit level of 750KW units, which will drive the overall profitability of wind turbines. Promote.
Fourth, analysis of the future competitive landscape of my country's wind turbine manufacturing industry
(1) China's wind turbine manufacturing industry is in its infancy
1. Generally speaking, there is a big gap between my country's wind turbine manufacturing technology and the international advanced level
Congji Technically speaking, the international large-scale wind power technology has matured in the past two decades. Driven by the goal of continuously reducing the cost of wind power generation and expanding the amount of economically available wind resources, international wind turbines continue to develop in the following directions:
Larger single-unit capacity. At present, the international mainstream wind turbines have reached 2 to 3MW of new unit structures and materials. The latest mainstream technology is pitch and variable speed constant frequency and gearbox-less direct drive technology offshore dedicated wind turbines.
In the past ten years, my country's large-scale wind turbine manufacturing industry has basically started from scratch. It has just mastered the design and manufacturing technology of the 750KW unit and its components, and has achieved mass production. At present, the domestic MW-class variable-speed variable-pitch constant-frequency unit is under development or At the introduction stage, some units were put into operation.
There is still a big gap between my country’s wind turbine manufacturing technology and the international advanced level. Most companies enter this industry through the introduction of technology and are currently in the digestion stage. We estimate that this process will continue until around 2010, when Chinese companies will have joint development or independent development. R & D capabilities. Of course, different companies will have differences in technological evolution due to their different foundations and time of entering the industry. Companies that are at the forefront will have better opportunities in future market competition.
2, my country's wind turbine manufacturing industry is in the entrepreneurial period
From the perspective of the industrial cycle, my country's wind turbines are still in the start-up period. The characteristics are that the technology is not yet mature and the industry continues to grow rapidly. There are many new companies joining the industry, and companies will continue to be eliminated.
We believe that only local manufacturing companies that master core technologies or can quickly digest and absorb imported technologies can finally win the competition and grow with the industry.
(2) my country's wind turbine manufacturing industry has not yet formed a stable competition pattern
1. The international competitive landscape of wind turbine manufacturing industry tends to stabilize
Since the beginning of the 21st century, international wind power equipment manufacturing companies have frequently undergone mergers and acquisitions and reorganizations. Giant companies have joined the wind turbine manufacturing industry. The industry concentration has continued to rise. The survival and development of small and medium-sized enterprises has become narrow and difficult.
In 2003, the Danish company Vestas annexed NEG Micon and became the world's largest wind turbine manufacturer; the United States General Electric (GE) entered the wind energy market through the merger of Enron Wind Company in 2002; Germany's Siemens AG merged with Denmark Bonus in 2004 , Becoming the fifth largest company in the wind turbine manufacturing industry; in June 2007, Suzlon acquired REPOWER, which is expected to hit the top four.
In general, after mergers and reorganizations in recent years, the industry concentration has continued to increase, and the top five in the industry have stabilized, firmly occupying more than 80% of the global market share.
2, the domestic wind turbine manufacturing industry has not yet formed a stable market pattern
As of the end of 2007, there were 21 major manufacturers entering my country's wind turbine manufacturing market, including 4 wholly foreign-owned enterprises, 5 joint ventures, and 12 local manufacturers.
The stable market pattern of my country's wind turbine manufacturing industry has not yet formed. Before 2006, foreign-funded enterprises accounted for more than 50% of the market share. Due to the support of national policies and the strengthening of local manufacturers, the market share of local enterprises will gradually increase in the future, the market share of joint ventures will also increase, and the market share of foreign-funded enterprises will gradually decline. We expect that the market share of foreign, local and joint ventures will be 40%, 55% and 5% in 2008, respectively.
3. The four forces will occupy a leading position in my country's future wind turbine manufacturing industry
At present, my country has mastered the design and manufacturing technology of units below MW and achieved mass production. With a large number of enterprises entering the field of wind turbine manufacturing, foreign wind turbine manufacturers have entered the country to set up factories, and the development and production of MW-class wind turbines has accelerated sharply.
From the perspective of the current wind turbine manufacturing, the four forces are worthy of our attention, and they will occupy a leading position in the future wind turbine manufacturing.
One of the strengths: industry pioneer
This force is represented by Goldwind Technology, Zhejiang Yunda and Shenyang Huachuang. With a keen sense of the development of the industry, they realized the opportunities in the field of wind turbine manufacturing very early, and they were the first to intervene in this market and completed the initial The accumulation of technology, the formation of a complete supply chain, initially establishes its own brand among customers, and has the first-mover advantage.
Although there is a first-mover advantage, the field of wind turbine manufacturing has developed rapidly in recent years, and new models continue to appear. These companies are facing strong pressure from latecomers and foreign manufacturers, and they have accelerated new products through cooperative development and technology introduction. The development of the company is trying to maintain its first-mover advantage.
The second force: traditional equipment manufacturers intervene strongly
Represented by Dongqi, Huarui, Harbin Electric, and Shanghai Power, seeing opportunities in the wind power market and under the pressure of corporate transformation, many traditional equipment manufacturers have strongly intervened in the wind turbine manufacturing industry. This mainly includes the original large-scale wind turbine component manufacturers, major domestic large-scale power station equipment manufacturers and aerospace equipment manufacturers.
For example, when thermal power equipment has passed the boom, the three major domestic power equipment groups: Shanghai Electric Group, Dongfang Electric Group, and Harbin Power Plant Equipment Group all regard wind power equipment manufacturing as a future business growth point and aggressively enter the wind power equipment manufacturing industry. . Dalian Heavy Industry Crane Co., Ltd. used its advantages in heavy equipment to establish Huarui Wind Power Technology Co., Ltd., and introduced 1.5MW wind turbine manufacturing technology from a high starting point.
Most of these companies have strong economic and technical strength, long-term industrial foundation and rich experience, and from the very beginning, they have aimed at the international mainstream MW-class advanced units and have strong catch-up capabilities; moreover, the long-term stable domestic wind power market will These new entrants provide ample time to catch up.
Power 3: Wind farm investors extend to the upstream industrial chain
In investing in wind power projects, wind power companies have noticed the huge opportunities in wind turbine manufacturing, and have also intervened in wind turbine manufacturing by extending upstream. These wind turbine companies have the inherent advantage of being close to the market, first owning the market and then organizing manufacturing. For example, Yinxing Energy, which is controlled by Ningxia Power Group, signed a technology supply contract with Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Co., Ltd. on the licensing of wind turbine technology in 2007, and involved in the production of wind turbines, which will be used in wind farms developed by the company.
It can be said that these companies were born with a golden key. The product orders are guaranteed and the relative risk is relatively small. However, whether they can quickly absorb the imported technology and eventually grow into a new force in domestic wind turbine manufacturing is still unknown.
Power Four: Foreign Fan Manufacturers
Seeing the huge market for wind power in China, subject to the regulations on the localization rate of wind power equipment, major international wind power equipment manufacturers have established wholly-owned or joint ventures in China. The entry of international fan manufacturers into the country has brought advanced fan manufacturing technology on the one hand, and trained talents and trained skilled workers for future domestic fan manufacturing.
In 2006, foreign manufacturers occupied a dominant position in my country's fan market: In 2006, they accounted for 55.10% of new installed capacity and 65.92% of the total domestic installed capacity. Among them, Vestas, Gamesa, and GE Wind occupy the top three positions, occupying 18.73%, 18.63% and 10.74% of the total domestic installed capacity respectively.
With advanced technology, management and strong financial strength, foreign wind turbine manufacturers will occupy an important position in the domestic wind turbine manufacturing market and become the most threatening opponent of local wind turbine manufacturers.
(3) The future competitive landscape of my country's local fan manufacturers
my country’s wind power installed capacity is growing rapidly. The Chinese government has supported local wind turbine manufacturing companies by setting the localization rate of wind turbines to protect the wind turbine manufacturing industry from direct impact by foreign wind turbine manufacturers in the early stages of development.
At present, there are many local companies entering the wind turbine manufacturing industry, and there are 12 major companies. Although many of them have produced prototypes, and some have been able to produce in small batches, we should see that wind turbine manufacturing has a high barrier to entry. If they do not have core technology or cannot quickly absorb imported technology to form independent development capabilities , Will eventually be eliminated in the market competition.
In the huge opportunities for wind power development in China and even the world, which companies can stand out and grow into globally competitive wind turbine manufacturing companies has always been a concern for industry and capital market researchers.
We will score the current Chinese local wind turbine manufacturing companies in terms of technological development maturity, financial strength, completeness of supporting systems, talent reserves, historical performance and brand image, management capabilities and incentive mechanisms, with the purpose of finding out the future of China The most potential wind turbine manufacturer.
1. The wind turbine manufacturing industry has high barriers to entry
The localization rate of more than 70% of wind power equipment prevents a large number of foreign wind turbines from entering China
According to the "Notice of the National Development and Reform Commission on Wind Power Construction Management Relevant Requirements": The localization rate of wind power equipment must reach 70% or more, and wind farms that do not meet the requirements for the localization rate of equipment are not allowed to be constructed. Therefore, the complete wind turbine manufacturing Whether it can meet the requirement of localization rate of wind power equipment is one of the main obstacles for foreign manufacturers to enter the industry.
High funding threshold
Wind turbine manufacturing is a capital-intensive high-tech equipment manufacturing industry, with a large initial investment; the wind turbine manufacturing industry has obvious economies of scale and must reach a certain scale to generate benefits. It is difficult for small companies to survive in this industry. Companies are required to have strong financial strength to resist risks.
Technical barriers are a big obstacle to new entrants who lack technical accumulation
The design and manufacture of large-scale wind turbines is very complicated, involving many frontier subject knowledge. Manufacturers are required to have a wealth of practical experience and have industry-specific technical know-how, which poses significant obstacles to new entrants who lack technical accumulation.
The obstacle of lack of professional talents
The wind power industry is an emerging industry and is developing rapidly. The domestic wind power industry generally lacks technical and managerial talents with rich practical experience, and entering this industry is facing a lack of talents.
Historical performance and brand image constitute a major obstacle to new entrants
Large-scale wind turbines are the basic equipment of the power system. They operate in the field all year round. They have harsh environments and high operational risks. They require a reliable service life of more than 20 years. Therefore, the owner is very cautious when selecting equipment manufacturers. As an assessment of suppliers, Historical performance is the best guarantee for product quality and contract performance. In addition, the new unit must go through the pilot test of the prototype before it is put into use, and a test wind farm that can be connected to the grid is required to test the new model; according to industry experience, large-scale wind turbines have a normal cycle from design to formal certification and mass production. It will take three to five years, which constitutes a big obstacle for new entrants.
2, Goldwind, Dongqi and Huarui are the most competitive local wind turbine manufacturers in the future
Below we will score the current Chinese local wind turbine manufacturing companies in terms of technology development maturity, financial strength, completeness of supporting systems, talent reserves, historical performance and brand image, management capabilities and incentive mechanisms. The purpose is to find out the future of China. The most potential wind turbine manufacturer.
Technology development maturity
When evaluating the technological maturity of an enterprise, we pay more attention to the time it takes for the enterprise to enter the industry, whether it has completed the independent development of kilowatt-level wind turbines, and the ability to absorb and absorb imported technologies. For companies that have been in the industry for a long time and have completed the development of kilowatt-level wind turbines, we give a higher score in this item; traditional large-scale equipment manufacturing companies, due to their strong R&D strength and strong manufacturing foundation, have the ability to absorb and absorb imported technologies. Strong, we also give high evaluation.
When evaluating the financial strength of enterprises, we believe that listed companies have stronger financial strength, and the controlling shareholder of non-listed companies is the dominant state-owned enterprise. Wind turbine projects require a large amount of capital investment in the early stage. Even if companies with insufficient capital enter the industry, they will not have enough stamina for development.
Completeness of supporting system
The completeness of the supporting system is related to the company's local industrial supporting situation, the company's ability to manage the supply chain, whether it has established a good parts quality management system, and the company's own parts manufacturing capabilities. Generally speaking, the longer you enter the industry, the richer the supply chain management experience and the stronger the ability; large equipment manufacturing companies have more experience in supply chain management and have stronger supporting capabilities; if the company is located in an equipment manufacturing base, the company The nearby supporting capacity is also strong.
History performance and brand image
Wind turbines belong to the basic equipment of the power system. The owners are very cautious when choosing equipment manufacturers. The historical performance and brand image of the company play an important role in this. Existing units in operation and experience as a large-scale equipment manufacturer, especially power equipment manufacturers, will play a key role in the company's market expansion.
Management ability and motivation
The management has experience in managing large-scale equipment manufacturing industry, has good operating performance in history, and can obtain more external resources. We give a higher evaluation in management ability; we have implemented equity incentives or private enterprises have done in management incentives Better, we give a higher evaluation.
Wind power is an emerging industry in my country, and there is a shortage of wind power talents. Wind power talents include wind power technical personnel and skilled technical workers. Wind turbine manufacturing companies that entered the industry earlier have established a good talent pool, and large equipment manufacturing companies have better talents. Fundamental and investing more resources for talent training, private enterprises and economically developed regions can have better remuneration to attract and retain talents.
3, after 2008, local wind turbine manufacturing companies will present a three-pronged situation
According to the current production capacity and order status of major companies, in 2008, among local companies, Goldwind's unique situation will be changed. Sinovel and Dongqi's 1.5MW wind turbines will be released to a certain extent, and they will catch up quickly, forming a three-pronged situation. , Forming the first team of domestic-funded enterprises; other wind turbine manufacturing companies such as Yunda, Huayi, Harbin Electric, etc. will be in the second team and occupy a certain market share.
At present, local manufacturers of wind turbines have certain orders. In 2008, they will basically complete the first order. The wind turbines are in operation, and the temporary differentiation is not obvious. We expect that by 2010, the wind turbines put into operation will gradually show the difference in quality, reliability, power generation efficiency and after-sales service after a period of operation. The enterprises of the first team will gradually show their advantages, and the orders will continue to increase. Competitive disadvantages of the square team appeared, the quality problems of the wind turbines sold were exposed, the development of new products could not keep up, and the subsequent orders could not be obtained, and survival was increasingly difficult.
5. Optimistic about the long-term growth prospects of the wind turbine manufacturing industry and give industry recommendations
(1) A-share wind turbine manufacturing listed companies show strong profitability
The profitability of listed companies in the domestic wind turbine manufacturing industry is higher than that of similar listed companies in the world, but the price-earnings ratio, price-to-book ratio and price-sales ratio are all higher than those of their international counterparts. PEG does not have advantages compared with international counterparts.
(2) China Wind Turbine Manufacturing Listed Company The proportion of fossil energy power generation in my country's installed power structure.
As of the end of 2006, my country’s installed wind power capacity was 2.6 million kilowatts, and the newly added installed capacity that year was 1.33 million kilowatts. The main bottleneck for the development of wind power in my country is that the production technology of wind power generation equipment has not yet been mastered, and the cost of one-time equipment input is too high. With domestic enterprises gradually mastering wind power equipment production technology and foreign manufacturers setting up factories in China, the cost of wind power equipment will gradually decrease. With the available wind resources of more than 1 billion kilowatts in my country, my country’s wind power development prospects are unlimited, and the development of wind power equipment bright future. With the reduction in the cost of wind power equipment and the implementation of corresponding national incentive policies, my country’s wind power equipment will continue to grow rapidly in 2007, and the demand is expected to reach 2.4 million kilowatts.
Solar power and biomass power generation have just started in our country. They also face the constraints of high technology and high power generation costs. They will face good development opportunities in the future. However, there are still many technical bottlenecks and high cost problems in achieving large-scale commercial applications.
4. Wind farm investors
At present, the main investment entities of domestic wind farms are large state-owned power groups, which are relatively diversified, and many investors have low sustainable development capabilities. Since wind turbines account for 70% of the total investment in wind power projects, wind farm investors should be very sensitive to wind turbine prices.
In order to develop wind power on a large scale, the National Development and Reform Commission has been implementing wind power concession projects since 2003. Investors and developers are selected through bidding once a year. The introduction of the concept of wind power concession has solved some of the main problems that hindered the development of wind power before 2002, and played an important role in promoting the large-scale development of wind power and promoting the localization of wind turbine equipment. In the wind power concession bidding, the actual bidding price of the bidders is determined by their own development strategy. In order to seize the wind farm resources, some bidders win the bid at a loss. The actual result is that the bid is won at a low price. The basis of electricity price has led to low on-grid power prices for wind power and project losses, which in turn leads to wind farm operators not having the ability to sustainably develop and ultimately damages the upstream wind turbine manufacturing industry. Therefore, in the fourth phase of wind power concession bidding in 2006, the state stipulated that the bid price was only one of the factors for winning the bid. In addition, the localization rate and other requirements were put forward, which more reasonably protected the wind power industry and wind farm investors.
5. Parts and material suppliers
my country's wind turbine equipment manufacturing industry has just emerged, and a complete industrial chain has not yet formed. While the whole machine assembly is launched in China, we should see that parts and components are the bottleneck of wind turbine manufacturing.
The components of wind power equipment include blades, generators, gearboxes, yaw systems, control systems, nacelles, main shafts, and nearly 20 parts. The cost is mainly concentrated on blades, hubs, generators, and gearboxes. Blades and hubs account for about 30% of the cost, generators account for about 7%, and gearboxes account for about 12%. The main components of wind turbines below MW have been localized and can be supplied in batches. However, there is still a big gap in the core parts of wind turbines above MW, and the quality of parts produced by local manufacturers is not reliable enough.
Blade: Foreign manufacturers continue to set up blade factories in my country
The design and technical requirements of the blade are relatively high. In 600kw and 750kw wind turbines, most of the blades are designed with fixed pitch. With the improvement of wind turbine manufacturing technology, in MW-class wind turbines, blades with variable pitch design will be equipped on more and more large wind turbines. At present, most of the 1.5MW wind turbines that are being developed and gradually started to operate in China use variable pitch blades. . Baoding Huiteng Company held about 90% of the domestic blade market before 2005, when it produced fixed pitch blades. Since 2006, variable-pitch blades have become the mainstream of wind turbine blades to be installed. Foreign manufacturers Vestas have set up blade factories in Tianjin and LM in Xinjiang. Baoding Huiteng has also developed 1.5MW variable-pitch blades. Shanghai FRP Research Institute from Germany With the introduction of 1.5MW blade technology, the blade market will be re-divided in the future.
Generators, gearboxes: most manufacturers are large equipment manufacturers
Generators and gearboxes are usually produced by large domestic generator manufacturers and gearbox manufacturers, and are part of their many industrial products. Generator manufacturers include CNR Group Yongji Plant, Lanzhou Electric, Zhuzhou CSR Electric and other companies. Among them, Yongji Plant once occupied about 80% of the market share of wind turbines. Lanzhou Electric acquired 220 units of Dongfang Turbine Factory in early 2007. An order for MW wind turbines. Gearbox manufacturers mainly include Nanjing High-precision Gear Group and Hangzhou Advance Gearbox Group, among which Nanjing High-precision Gear Group holds 90% of the market share.
Control system: more imported from abroad
Control systems are mostly developed by complete machine production companies, and their control systems are relatively complex. In the manufacture of MW-class wind turbines, domestic manufacturers usually adopt imports or cooperate with foreign companies to gradually realize localization. Goldwind has basically completed the development of the control system for a 1.5MW direct drive permanent magnet wind turbine. This type of wind turbine has been put into operation in March 2007.
Metal parts: bearing technical requirements are higher, other metal parts have lower technical threshold
Bearings are the most critical mechanical components of direct-drive wind turbines. Domestic bearings cannot currently meet the needs of large-scale wind turbines, and foreign technology needs to be introduced.
The technical threshold of other parts of wind power equipment is low, and there are many manufacturers. For example, towers are usually produced near the assembly plant.
Addition 3: Various countries have introduced various preferential policies to support the development of new energy sources such as wind power
1. International policy mechanisms supporting wind power development
From international experience, the government's incentive policies play an important role in the development of the new energy industry. These policies and measures include various forms of subsidies, price concessions, tax relief, discounts or low-interest loans, etc. High-intensity incentive mechanism is one of the key measures to overcome development obstacles and promote industrial development.
Policy measures to support the development of the wind power industry can be divided into two categories: direct and indirect policy measures. Direct policy measures refer to those policies that directly affect the development goals of the local wind power industry; indirect policy measures are relatively macroscopic, and their main purpose is to provide a good development space and environment for the local wind turbine manufacturing industry.
The formulation and implementation of indirect policies can create a certain scale of wind power market, thereby cultivating first-class equipment manufacturers, and at the same time provide a stable policy environment for wind farm investors and wind power technology research and development. However, when it is difficult for local wind power equipment manufacturers to compete with international leading companies, it is important to directly support the policies of wind power manufacturers (China's current wind turbine manufacturing industry is at this stage). With the support of the state, the industry can develop and grow.
2. China is gradually improving various preferential policies for wind power
Looking back on my country’s renewable energy incentive policies, the incentive policies based on the principle of "debt service, reasonable profit, and full purchase" have played a positive role in promoting wind power development for a long time. However, because this pricing principle is based on the cost of individual projects, the cost is high, and the price of electricity also rises, and enterprises have no pressure to reduce costs. In the long run, such an institutional system faces the need for reform.
At present, my country has adopted the method of concession in the practice of wind power projects. Since 2003, four wind power concession bids have been conducted. In the meantime, the wind power concession bidding principles have been revised three times. In general, the proportion of electricity prices in the bidding has been reduced; indicators such as technology and localization rate have been strengthened; wind power policies have shifted from focusing on power generation in the past In order to support domestic wind power equipment manufacturing.
At present, domestic policies that are more favorable to the development of wind power mainly include:
Localization rate requirements
In July 2005, the "Notice on Relevant Requirements for Wind Power Construction Management" was issued, which clearly stipulates that the localization rate of wind power equipment must reach 70% or more. Wind farm construction that does not meet the localization rate requirements is not allowed to be constructed, and imported equipment must be taxed according to regulations. . The 2006 wind power concession bidding principle stipulates that each bidder must have a wind power equipment manufacturer participating, and the wind power equipment manufacturer must provide the tenderee with a letter of commitment to ensure that the supply of wind turbines meets the 70% localization rate. After winning the bid, the bidder must and can only use the fan produced by the manufacturer specified in the bid.
Wind power is fully online
The "Renewable Energy Law" was implemented on January 1, 2006. The law requires power grid companies to provide convenience for renewable energy power to go online, and to purchase the full amount of renewable energy power that meets the standards, so that renewable energy power companies can survive and gradually improve their competitiveness in the energy market.
Electricity price sharing
According to the relevant provisions of the "Renewable Energy Power Generation Price and Cost Sharing Management Trial Measures", the price of wind energy power is the government-guided price, that is, the winning price determined through bidding, and the on-grid power price of renewable energy power generation projects is higher than the part of the benchmark on-grid power price of local coal-fired units According to the proportion of the electricity sold in each province to the whole country, each provincial power grid company will share the national renewable energy price surcharge. The difference between the actual renewable energy price paid and the electricity price surcharge that it should bear will be uniformly allocated across the country.
Finance and taxation support
Considering that the investment cost of renewable energy development and utilization is relatively high at this stage, in order to speed up technological development and market formation, the "Renewable Energy Law" also sets up special funds for renewable energy development to provide financial resources for renewable energy development and utilization projects. The preferential loans with discounts provide for tax incentives and other supportive measures for projects listed in the guidelines for the development of the renewable energy industry.