The forecast of wind power installed capacity is affected by many factors such as policies, electricity prices, the technological progress of the complete machine manufacturer, and the supporting capabilities of the component manufacturers, and has great uncertainty. Therefore, the National Development and Reform Commission originally predicted that the cumulative installed capacity of wind power in 2010 will reach 5 million kilowatts, which will be greatly exceeded. In 2007, my country's new installed wind power capacity reached 2.4 million kilowatts, and the cumulative installed capacity at the end of 2007 reached 5 million kilowatts. In addition, many domestic wind turbine manufacturers have huge plans for production and expansion since 2007. It is predicted that from 2007 to 2010, my country’s newly installed wind power capacity will reach 2.4 million kilowatts, 4 million kilowatts, 5.5 million kilowatts, and 7 million kilowatts. By 2010, the cumulative installed wind power capacity will reach 21.5 million kilowatts.
Domestic megawatt wind turbine manufacturers become the biggest winner
Because fan manufacturing is still an emerging industry in my country, foreign manufacturers had a relatively high market share before. In 2006, foreign manufacturers accounted for 59% of my country's wind power market share, and domestic manufacturers accounted for 41%.
As domestic manufacturers gradually master the core technology of fan manufacturing, the market share will increase rapidly year by year, and the market share of domestic manufacturers is expected to reach 95% in 2010.
Experts also pointed out that the proportion of my country's megawatt-class units will increase in the next few years, but there is still a certain market for 750-kilowatt units. Although the economics of megawatt-class units are not as good as kilowatt-class units in the initial stage of development, as the technology matures and the output increases, the cost will come down. In the European market, the market share of units above the megawatt level exceeds 90%, which represents the market development trend. In 2006, my country's new wind turbine market accounted for 70% below the megawatt level. As new complete machine manufacturers gradually develop units above the megawatt level, the proportion of new megawatt-level wind turbines in my country will increase rapidly each year.
The supply of some key parts is tight
With the increase in domestic wind power market demand, key component supporting manufacturers have developed to a certain extent, and a specialized industrial chain of wind power industry manufacturing and supporting components is gradually being formed. The main features are: generator manufacturers can meet the needs of domestic wind power industry development ; Gearbox manufacturing enterprises can basically meet the needs of the domestic wind power industry development, but due to the high quality requirements of gearbox bearings, it is currently unable to provide qualified products in China. The production capacity of gearboxes is greatly affected by the supply of foreign bearings; the control system is currently mainly The equipment produced by MITA of Denmark and Windtec of Austria is adopted, but domestic companies such as Konoweiye, Beijing Jingxin, and Times Group are developing and producing; blade manufacturing companies can meet the needs of domestic wind power industry development; pitch and yaw bearings are available in China Luozhou, Zhezhou and Xuzhou Rothe Erde Company can provide them, but they have not passed the test of long-term operation.
The market competition pattern will change
As of the end of July 2007, there were 40 domestic wind turbine manufacturers, including 17 state-owned and state-controlled companies, 12 private manufacturing companies, 7 joint ventures, and 4 wholly foreign-owned enterprises. Among them; more than 30 domestic and joint venture companies, most of them started to get involved in wind turbine manufacturing after 2005.
In 2008, as many manufacturers enter the small-batch and mass-production stages respectively, the competitive landscape of the entire market will undergo great changes. At present, the first-tier manufacturers that have achieved mass production capacity, including Goldwind Technology, Dongfang Turbine, Sinovel Wind Power, Zhejiang Yunda, etc., are in the second-tier market and have trial-produced prototypes or have small-batch production capabilities. Manufacturers are very concerned.